Wealthsimple Predict is now live on the App Store and Google Play, making Wealthsimple the first major Canadian platform to offer regulated prediction market trading to everyday retail investors. Here is everything you need to know about how it works, what you can trade, and what the real risks look like.
What Is Wealthsimple Predict?
Wealthsimple Predict is a new standalone app that gives Canadian retail investors access to prediction markets trading through nearly 4,000 event contracts trading on Kalshi, the leading U.S. predictions exchange.
Clients buy contracts priced under $1. Each contract represents a position on whether a specified outcome will occur. A correct call pays out on every contract held. Contracts can be bought for as little as $0.01, meaning you can take a position with very small amounts.
It is a standalone app — separate from the main Wealthsimple app — though existing Wealthsimple users can log in with the same credentials.
What Can You Trade on Wealthsimple Predict?
In Canada, CIRO allows the trading of prediction markets related to economic data, financial markets, and climate-related events. Other types of prediction markets offered in other countries — such as contracts on election results or pop culture events — are prohibited in Canada.
The app includes trading categories for Canada, Markets, Companies, Economy, and Climate. Inside the Canada category, contracts include questions like “Bank of Canada decision in Oct 2026?” with choices of “Maintains rate” or “Hike 25bps,” plus questions related to housing and Canadian companies such as Dollarama, Aritzia, Canadian Tire, and Lululemon.
In practical terms: if you have a view on where inflation is headed, what the Bank of Canada will do with rates, or where oil prices are going, you can put a small amount of money behind that view and get paid if you are right.
How Prediction Markets Work
The mechanics are simple:
- Browse available event contracts in the app
- Each contract has a Yes or No outcome and a current price between $0.01 and $0.99
- The price reflects the implied probability — a contract at $0.70 means the market thinks there is roughly a 70% chance of that outcome occurring
- If the outcome resolves in your favour, the contract pays out $1.00
- If it does not, you lose what you paid for the contract
An unlikely outcome priced at $0.10 pays $1 if correct — a 10x return on your contract cost. A near-certain outcome priced at $0.90 pays $1 if correct — a much smaller return, but with better odds.
Why Is This a Big Deal for Canada?
While not the first to market — Interactive Brokers Canada was the first to get a license and offer limited access to forecast contracts — Wealthsimple is the first to partner with Kalshi, the leading U.S. predictions exchange, making it the most accessible regulated prediction market product available to Canadian retail investors.
Canada banned binary options in 2017 after a wave of fraud, and Polymarket was barred from Ontario following a 2025 settlement with the Ontario Securities Commission, a ban running to 2027. Wealthsimple Predict fills that gap as a fully regulated, retail-facing product available to most Canadians.
Global prediction market volume topped US$51 billion last year and is expected to reach US$240 billion in 2026. As of April 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket had a combined monthly global trading volume of about $24 billion.
Is It Safe? The Risks You Need to Know
Wealthsimple Predict comes with clear risks, and they are worth taking seriously before you fund the app.
Academic research shows around 70% of prediction market traders lose money. A research paper from an associate professor of finance at the University of Toronto, which studied trading gains and losses on Polymarket, found that the median investor lost money on prediction trading between November 2022 and March 2026.
The researcher considered Wealthsimple wise to limit prediction trading to economic and financial topics because it reduces the risk of people adopting gambling-like behaviours — but noted that consumers are generally better off investing in other products because prediction markets are not big money makers for most people.
Wealthsimple has also built in a safeguard: if someone transfers a large amount of their portfolio to prediction trading, the app will prompt them to confirm it was intentional.
The bottom line: treat Wealthsimple Predict as a small, speculative allocation — not a replacement for long-term investing in a TFSA or RRSP. If you are new to Wealthsimple, check out the Wealthsimple referral code offer to grab a $25 bonus when you open your account.
Wealthsimple Predict vs Regular Investing
| Wealthsimple Predict | Stock/ETF Investing | |
|---|---|---|
| Minimum cost | $0.01 per contract | $1 (fractional shares) |
| Outcome | Binary — win or lose | Gradual market returns |
| Time horizon | Short — event resolves on a set date | Long-term compounding |
| Risk | High — most traders lose money | Lower with diversified ETFs |
| Regulated in Canada | Yes (CIRO, via Kalshi) | Yes (CIRO) |
| Available in Ontario | Yes | Yes |
How to Get Started
- Download Wealthsimple Predict from the App Store or Google Play
- Log in with your existing Wealthsimple credentials, or create a new account
- Fund your Predict wallet
- Browse event categories and buy contracts on outcomes you have a view on
The app is available now across Canada, including Ontario — where Polymarket remains banned until 2027.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Wealthsimple Predict regulated in Canada? Yes. CIRO authorized Wealthsimple to offer event and forecast contract trading in March 2026. The app launched publicly in July 2026.
Can I trade on elections or sports? No. CIRO restricts Canadian prediction market trading to economic indicators, financial markets, and climate events. Election and sports contracts are not available.
Is Wealthsimple Predict the same app as Wealthsimple? No. It is a standalone app available separately on the App Store and Google Play, though you can log in with your existing Wealthsimple account.
What is the minimum I can spend on a contract? Contracts can be purchased for as little as $0.01.
Do most people make money on prediction markets? Research suggests most do not — studies show around 70% of prediction market traders lose money. It is best treated as a small, speculative allocation rather than a primary investment strategy.
Is Wealthsimple Predict available in Ontario? Yes. Unlike Polymarket, which is banned in Ontario until 2027, Wealthsimple Predict is fully authorized and available across Canada.
🎁 New to Wealthsimple? Sign up at Wealthsimple with referral code US0EBW and get $25 added to your account after depositing $100.